In the current election year, economic concerns are at the forefront of voters’ minds. While the economy appears stable on paper, many Americans are feeling the pinch in their daily lives due to one significant issue: housing affordability.
A recent survey commissioned by Redfin reveals that 91% of adult Gen Z voters consider housing affordability a primary factor influencing their vote in the upcoming presidential election. This concern surpasses other significant issues like the overall economy, education, gun control, and even abortion.
Housing affordability is a cornerstone of this year’s presidential election because even though the economy is fairly strong, unemployment is low, and wages are rising, buying a home feels impossible for many Americans.
Elijah de la Campa, Redfin senior economist The ongoing housing crisis, exacerbated by the pandemic, has led to a rapid decline in housing affordability. Home prices and rents have surged, and mortgage rates have risen sharply. This situation makes it increasingly difficult for many people to afford to buy a home, with some struggling even to afford rent. According to Redfin, only 26% of Gen Z adults own a home, and the rest face high rental costs.
Redfin’s senior economist, Elijah de la Campa, emphasized the centrality of housing affordability in this year’s presidential election. He noted, “Housing affordability is a cornerstone of this year’s presidential election because even though the economy is fairly strong, unemployment is low, and wages are rising, buying a home feels impossible for many Americans. This is particularly the case for young people, who have seen the cost of starter homes increase twice as fast as incomes.”
Millennials, Gen Xers, and baby boomers also recognize the importance of housing affordability, but they prioritize the overall economy as their primary concern. Nonetheless, at least 80% of every generation surveyed considers housing affordability a significant factor. Interestingly, housing affordability ranks third for millennials, fourth for Gen Xers, and sixth for baby boomers.
Earlier this year, another Redfin survey found that over half of homeowners and renters say housing affordability is influencing their voting decisions. Nearly two-thirds feel negatively about the economy due to housing costs. Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, explained, “Housing affordability is top of mind for voters because elevated mortgage rates and home prices, along with an acute housing shortage, have pushed the dream of homeownership out of reach for many Americans. While the economy is strong on paper, a lot of families aren’t feeling the benefits, because they’re struggling to afford the house they want or already live in.”
Housing affordability is top of mind for voters because elevated mortgage rates and home prices, along with an acute housing shortage, have pushed the dream of homeownership out of reach for many Americans
Daryl Fairweather, Redfin chief economist The sentiment around housing affordability has intensified in recent months, reflecting the growing urgency of the issue. An analysis by former Barclays analyst and Substack writer Aziz Sunderji, previously covered by Fortune, found that homeowners are more likely to identify as strongly Republican, while renters often align with the Democratic Party. Additionally, swing counties experiencing significant home price increases tend to vote for the incumbent candidate.
As the election approaches, it remains to be seen how these dynamics will unfold. For now, it is clear that housing affordability will play a pivotal role in shaping voter preferences and, ultimately, the election outcome.
